Summit tilt offers a clue to Kilauea lava-fountain timing
EARTHUnverifiedUpdated:
A reported analysis of Kilauea’s recent eruption sequence says repeated summit-tilt patterns gave USGS an operational clue that lava fountains were likely to resume, even without a clear immediate seismic precursor.
Tracking deflation and refilling after eruptions
According to the reported analysis, each fountain eruption rapidly deflated Kilauea’s summit, followed by slower refilling of the Halemaʻumaʻu magma reservoir.
USGS identified a pattern in which successive eruptions occurred at similar summit-tilt levels, helping it alert people when eruptions were likely. Gas measurements reportedly did not favor carbon-dioxide foam formation; they instead leaned toward a steam-driven explanation, though why fountains begin remains unclear.
Immediately before lava fountains restarted, the reported observations showed no clear seismic signal. The mechanism that triggers the fountains also remained unresolved.
The reported Kilauea observations connected similar summit-tilt levels with successive fountain eruptions, allowing USGS to issue alerts when another eruption was likely. The data also weighed against a carbon-dioxide foam explanation and leaned toward a steam-driven model, without identifying the trigger.
Tilt helps warnings while the mechanism remains unresolved
The sequence was monitored with seismic, infrasound, geodetic, gas, visual, and thermal instruments. It reportedly shows that ground deformation may provide useful warning when an immediate seismic precursor is absent, while narrowing—but not resolving—the explanation for the fountains.
Sources
- Ars TechnicaWhat's been driving Hawaii's lava fountains?Read source →