Solar mass-loss kicks could destabilize outer planets far earlier, simulations suggest

Random kicks rather than smooth mass loss

ScienceAlert reports that researchers modeled the Sun's future mass loss as thousands of random, discrete “kicks,” rather than a smooth process.

In 37 of 48 simulations selected as the most realistic cases, the outer planets began crossing orbits before the Sun finished losing its outer layers. The article says 90 percent of the models ended with at least one giant planet ejected and with Solar System disruption within three billion years after the Sun became a white dwarf.

Earlier projections described in the report modeled the dying Sun's mass loss as smooth, with the outer planets expected to remain undisturbed for 100 billion years even when solar evolution was considered.

The reported simulations replace smooth mass loss with thousands of discrete, asymmetric ejection events. Under the modeled kicks, orbital instability and planet ejection can arise much sooner than in the smooth-loss projection.

A model projection rather than a future observation

The result changes the modeled mechanism behind the outer Solar System's long-term fate: small, random changes to the Sun's motion and gravity can accumulate into planetary instability. It is a projection from simulations, not an observation of a future event.